The international agreement to move away from fossil fuels at the 2023 COP28 climate summit was seen by some as a pivotal moment signaling the decline of oil reliance.

However, little progress has been made since that time, despite a strong consensus among scientists on the overwhelming evidence of global warming primarily driven by fossil fuel combustion.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has underscored the world's continued dependence on oil, particularly highlighted by the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has significant implications for the global economy and energy supply.

While the war's consequences have prompted calls to reduce fossil fuel dependence, various global trends suggest that the promises made in 2023 are still far from realization.

One key factor is the agenda of US President Donald Trump, who advocates for an aggressive energy policy of "drill, baby, drill" and has employed military force in oil-rich nations like Venezuela and Iran.

So, why is it so challenging for nations to move away from oil? Here are several contributing factors:

It's the Economy

Financial markets are closely linked to fluctuating crude prices, reflecting deep-rooted connections to hydrocarbon assets.

Claudio Angelo, an international policy coordinator at Brazil's Climate Observatory, emphasized that transitioning away from fossil fuels cannot happen overnight, as it would lead to a global economic catastrophe.

Countries like Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia rely entirely on oil for their economic stability. Even countries with more diverse economies, such as Brazil, would face severe economic repercussions from eliminating crude oil exports.

'Political Will'

Bill Hare, director of Climate Analytics, pointed out that some oil-exporting nations like the United States, Canada, and Australia possess the resources to transition to green energy.

However, with Trump back in power and right-wing leaders gaining influence globally, economic interests are once again taking precedence over addressing climate change, with some even denying its existence.

Leonardo Stanley, an associate researcher at the Center for the Study of State and Society in Buenos Aires, noted that there is a prevailing Western vision led by the United States that seeks to revert to previously tried economic models.

Powerful Lobbyists

According to Angelo, "The oil and gas sector is the most powerful lobbying interest on Earth." He noted that for the last three decades, this sector has worked to delay necessary changes.

An AFP investigation in 2023 revealed that McKinsey, a consulting firm with clients like ExxonMobil and Saudi Arabia's Aramco, has been actively defending oil interests during COP28 preparatory meetings.

Who Foots the Bill?

A shift away from oil requires financial support for both wealthy oil-producing nations and poorer countries dependent on oil imports.

Hare emphasized that initiating this process requires a commitment from major economic powers to establish an international framework that facilitates this transition.

Despite these challenges, some progress has been made in the transition to renewable energy. By 2025, renewable sources accounted for nearly half of global electricity capacity, a record according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).

China, the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has emerged as a leader in renewable energy, significantly increasing its wind and solar power capabilities within the past year.

Additionally, in Pakistan, solar energy has transformed from a minor source of power in 2020 to a primary electricity source today.

Hare noted that renewable energy has also led to reduced electricity bills in certain regions of the United States and Australia.